The price of olive oil is expected to fall as weather conditions improve and harvests strengthen.
- Deoleo, the leading olive oil producer, forecasts a price drop following favorable harvests.
- Current high-quality olive oil prices indicate market tension despite positive prospects.
- UK consumers face record price surges since late 2021, with a potential reprieve in sight.
- Industry experts like CaixaBank Research denote a promising future for olive oil supply.
The olive oil market is anticipated to stabilize after experiencing a period of extreme weather conditions that adversely affected harvests. Deoleo, the world’s largest olive oil producer, has projected a significant price drop, attributing it to expected improvements in this season’s harvests compared to the previous year. According to Miguel Ángel Guzmán, Deoleo’s chief sales officer, while the market currently experiences high tension, particularly in the segment of extra virgin oils, there is optimism for gradual normalization as the supply increases.
Guzmán highlighted that wholesale olive oil prices are predicted to decrease between November and January and continue to fall further into 2025. This forecast suggests a possible reduction from the existing price range of £7.50 to £8.34 (€9-€10) per liter, potentially dropping to as low as £4.17 (€5) per liter. This comes as a potential relief for consumers who have been subjected to steep price hikes, notably in the UK where prices soared by 150% since the end of 2021.
Recent reports have aligned with Deoleo’s predictions, with entities such as CaixaBank Research observing the initial signs of recovery within the olive oil sector. Such developments are welcome news for consumers following years of challenges, including significant droughts and poor harvest yields, which drove prices to unprecedented heights.
Earlier forecasts from the International Olive Council had predicted prices could escalate to £16 per liter by May, a further increase from earlier rates of £14. Compounded by premium brands like Belazu and Odeysa retailing up to £18 per liter, this escalation has strained household budgets.
Overall, these insights underscore a cautiously optimistic outlook for olive oil prices, contingent on continued favorable weather and improved crop yields. Experts agree that the sector could finally see relief from the constrained supply issues that have plagued it in recent years.
The olive oil market is set to experience a phase of stabilization and potential price relief due to improved harvest conditions.
